Election Day – Fast Approaching!
September 2010

Election Resource Center Pfizer Colleagues have a history of involvement in political activity and take seriously their right to voice their opinion and participate in the electoral process. Use the Pfizer Election Resource Center website to stay updated about election activities and the candidates in your state races this year.

The political climate has shifted dramatically since President Obama’s resounding victory in the 2008 presidential election. Two years later, Democrats’ enthusiasm has waned and Republicans have the wind at their backs going into the November 2nd midterm elections. The question is no longer which party will win more seats this cycle, but whether Republicans will win enough seats to take control of one or both Houses. If the GOP successfully defends every one of its seats (not an unlikely scenario), Republicans need to pick up 10 of the Democrats’ 57 seats in the Senate to gain control, and 39 of the Democrats’ 255 seats in the House to win that body.

Most political prognosticators believe that the House is more vulnerable than the Senate. Democrats made huge gains in the House in both 2006 when they wrested control from the GOP in the shadow of President Bush’s unpopularity and a series of GOP scandals, and in 2008 when they rode President Obama’s coattails to significant gains. As a result, there are 48 Democratic members of the House of Representatives who represent districts that voted for Senator John McCain in the 2008 presidential election. This is a dangerous statistic for Democrats, especially in light of indications that Republicans are highly motivated this cycle, such as a recent study by American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate showing that, for the first time since 1930, more Republicans have voted in primary elections than Democrats.

The Senate will be a more difficult task for Republicans, as they must win 16 of 18 competitive races (including defending GOP-held seats) in order to net a 10 seat gain. The battle for the Senate will hinge on the size of the GOP wave that looks almost certain to sweep over the country this fall.

Perhaps the most underreported story of the 2010 cycle is the fact that 37 states will elect a Governor this fall. Aside from the sheer number of races, what makes this so important is the control that the newly elected Governors will exert over the critical process of redrawing Congressional districts that will take place after the completion of the 2010 census.

Democrats currently occupy 26 governor’s mansions across the country, but the GOP is poised to make gains this fall. Popular Democratic governors of deep red states such as Wyoming, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Kansas are either term-limited or are not running for reelection, and the GOP is expected to capitalize. The only comparable state on the Republican side is solidly Democratic Hawaii, where two-term GOP Governor Linda Lingle is term-limited. Republican candidates also appear likely to win seats in Michigan and Pennsylvania where both Democratic incumbents are term-limited.

While the GOP has more sure-fire gains, nine of the 16 toss-up races this cycle are seats held by GOP incumbents, eight of whom are not running for reelection (CA, CT, FL, GA, MN, NV, RI, VT). The lone endangered GOP incumbent is Texas Governor Rick Perry, who has served ever since ascending to the seat in 2000 following George W. Bush’s election to the White House, and is locked in a tough race with former Houston Mayor Bill White. The seven toss-up seats held by Democrats include three retiring or term-limited Governors (NM, OR, WI) and four endangered incumbents (IL, IA, MA, OH).

The Republican Governors Association maintains a significant fundraising edge over its Democratic counterpart ($21 million in the bank for RGA, $12 million for the DGA), but the Republican National Committee’s anemic fundraising will force the RGA to spend heavily to fund voter contact initiatives traditionally funded by the RNC, somewhat negating that advantage.

Because gubernatorial races often turn on parochial issues rather than national trends, it is difficult to make a blanket prediction about one party’s chances over the other party. That being said, the nationwide enthusiasm gap between GOP voters and Democratic voters is troubling for Democratic candidates at all levels. If the nationwide Republican wave builds enough momentum, it just might wash away some Democratic candidates who would have won in a different cycle. Republicans are set to make some significant gains in state legislative races across the country, and likely Republican pick-ups include House chambers in IN, OH & PA and the state Senate in WI.

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